The world may witness the return of El Niño—one of the planet’s most powerful climate phenomena—in the coming months, UN News reports via Kazinform. According to the World Meteorological Organization, there is an 80% chance of it forming this summer, with the probability of it persisting through November exceeding 90%.
Experts warn that El Niño could intensify global warming and elevate the risks of extreme heatwaves, droughts, heavy downpours, and other hazardous weather events. Against the backdrop of recent record-high temperatures, its consequences are expected to be felt even more acutely. The primary driver of these shifts is the anomalous warming of surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, where deep-layer temperatures are currently sitting nearly six degrees Celsius above normal.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged the global community to treat the development of El Niño as an urgent climate warning, emphasizing that it will accelerate the warming process at a faster and broader scale. He stressed the need to fast-track the transition to renewable energy, protect vulnerable populations, and advance early warning systems.
What is El Niño and why is it dangerous?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern driven by the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. While it typically recurs every two to seven years and lasts for about a year, its impact ripples far beyond the Pacific, shifting temperature regimes and precipitation patterns globally. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo noted that the 2023–2024 El Niño ranked among the five strongest in recorded history and was a primary driver of the record-breaking global temperatures in 2024.
Although every El Niño develops uniquely, it shares common baseline impacts. Southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia typically experience increased rainfall. Conversely, Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia often face severe droughts.
The WMO’s seasonal forecast shows an alarming trend: between June and August, temperatures in almost all regions of the world are expected to be above normal. While scientists note there is no definitive proof that climate change makes El Niño itself more frequent or severe, global warming undoubtedly aggravates its consequences, as warmer oceans and atmospheres provide additional fuel for extreme weather events.
