Türkiye is witnessing a rapid fall in birth rates, a trend that experts say could reshape the country’s demographic structure within decades. According to TÜİK, the fertility rate has remained below the replacement threshold of 2.1 for several years, hitting an all-time low of 1.48 in 2024.
Furkan Metin, deputy head of TÜİK, warns that if the decline continues, Türkiye’s median age may exceed 45 within the next 40 years. “Turkey in the 1990s was like a 20-year-old young man. Today, we no longer have that level of energy,” he said. He notes that an aging population will strain labor markets, social security systems and healthcare.
Türkiye officially entered the category of “very aged countries” last year, and projections suggest that people over 65 will make up more than 25% of the population within a quarter century. Metin also highlighted Türkiye’s high rate of caesarean deliveries — the highest in the world — which he says often limits families to a single child.
Professor Cemalettin Şahin of the National Defense University argues that the demographic downturn has deep roots, tracing back to policy changes in the 1960s that discouraged high birth rates. He calls for a “nationwide mobilization,” including changes in housing design, family policies and the education system. “This is not only an economic issue. It is a cultural challenge that affects Türkiye’s long-term future,” he stressed.
